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Projects: Projects for Investigator
Reference Number	NIA_NPG_004
Title	Development of An Improved Distribution Load Estimates Methodology
Status	Completed
Energy Categories	Other Power and Storage Technologies(Electricity transmission and distribution) 100%;
Research Types	Applied Research and Development 100%
Science and Technology Fields	ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) 100%
UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation	Not Cross-cutting 100%
Principal Investigator	Project Contact No email address given Northern Powergrid
Award Type	Network Innovation Allowance
Funding Source	Ofgem
Start Date	01 April 2015
End Date	01 November 2015
Duration	7 months
Total Grant Value	£40,000
Industrial Sectors	Power
Region	Yorkshire & Humberside
Programme	Network Innovation Allowance
Investigators	Principal Investigator	Project Contact , Northern Powergrid (100.000%)
Web Site	http://www.smarternetworks.org/project/NIA_NPG_004
Objectives	The key objective is to assess the feasibility of the development and delivery of a revised DLE methodology that materially increases the accuracy and robustness of the demand forecasts compared with the current Northern Powergrid and industry standard methodologies. This will facilitate enhanced robustness of investment planning decisions both internally and externally in the future. Where this is feasible, to then deliver a fully documented new tool / model and process for forecasting demand which is materially more accurate / more robust to internal and external challenge than the present process. The project success criteria are defined as production and publication of the following: Review of the state of the art and analysis options Report describing the findings from the data analysis Improved algorithm identification and associated documentation Case study reports, methodology refinement report, sensitivity analysis report using the improved algorithm Evaluation and benchmarking report Development of spreadsheet model(s) together with supporting documentation and user guidance which can be used to apply the algorithms.
Abstract	Annually the maximum half hourly demand is established for all EHV/HV and higher voltage substations to present a snapshot of the peak demand at that substation in the previous 12 months and provide a platform for estimating future network demands, identification of substations operating above, or forecast to operate above their nominated capacity and thus require reinforcement. This demand information is summarised in the Northern Powergrid Limited Distribution Load Estimates (DLEs). The data collected in the DLEs effectively summarises, but also masks, many underlying uncertainties and because of these it is difficult to tease out the key underlying demand trends at individual and groups of substations. In practice the measured maximum demand at can vary materially year on year without there being any apparent underlying reason or identifiable and forecastable trend. This means that it can be difficult to develop a load related investment plan which is robust and stable year on year. This can lead to inefficiencies which are potentially reflected in non-optimum investment plans which may increase costs un-necessarily. The uncertainties associated with network demand are expected to increase with the deployment of smart grids and the continuing influence of climate change, economic development and changing demographics. The output of the project is development and delivery of a revised DLE methodology that materially increases the accuracy and robustness of the demand forecasts compared with the current Northern Powergrid Limited method. This will facilitate enhanced robustness of the associated investment planning decisions both internally and externally in the future. The method proposed seeks to gain a deeper understanding of underlying historic demand trends of customers supplied by the Northern Powergrid distribution networks so that their future needs can be better understood and forecast. This project, through level doctoral research, applies current and new computational / statistical analysis tools and techniques to the available demand data with a view to identifying the presence or otherwise of underlying trends within the data itself or linked to other parameters that are not evident from the current methodology. The specific details of the analyses to be undertaken are not defined at this stage in order to permit a high degree of flexibility for interpretation as is appropriate for research. The majority of sensors proposed are already used by Northern Powergrid, the key area of development is the integration of all the sensors into one system, allowing the correlation between variables to be explored and trends in circuit breaker performance to be identified.Note : Project Documents may be available via the ENA Smarter Networks Portal using the Website link above
Publications	(none)
Final Report	(none)
Added to Database	09/08/18